A new study says that people should get married between the ages of 28 and 32 if they don’t want to get divorced soon, at least in the first five years.
The study was done by Nick Wolfinger, a sociologist of the University of Utah, and published by the generally pro-marriage Institute of Family Studies as well. It suggests that people who get married between 28 and 32 split up soon. This is a new development; sociologists formerly believed that waiting longer to get hitched usually led to more stability to the relation.
Wolfinger analyzed data from 2006-2010 and the 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth and shared, “The odds of divorce decline as you age from your teenage years through your late twenties and early thirties,” he writes. “Thereafter, the chances of divorce go up again as you move into your late thirties and early forties.” For each year after about 32, the chance of divorce goes up about 5% according to the study.
Wolfinger further says “even after controlling for respondents’ sex, race, family structure of origin, age at the time of the survey, education, religious tradition, religious attendance, and sexual history, as well as the size of the metropolitan area that they live in.” He thinks the reason might be selection bias.
“The kinds of people who wait till their thirties to get married may be the kinds of people who aren’t predisposed toward doing well in their marriages,” he writes. This also means “people who marry later face a pool of potential spouses that has been winnowed down to exclude the individuals most predisposed to succeed at matrimony,” he added.